Closing spread
NO -2
Total
41
Model margin
+0.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.096
- 40.9%Success rate41.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- 35.3%Third-down rate38.7%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.48Points / drive1.11
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.029EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NO are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 16/28 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 23 | 106 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 82 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 6 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/31 | 181 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+0.18