Closing spread
NO -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.115
- 41.1%Success rate47.2%
- +0.009EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.077
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.18CPOE+5.36
- 35.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 1.51Points / drive2.21
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NO are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/35 | 249 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 48 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Gibson | 6 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 6 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/39 | 413 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 100 | 2 |
| Marques Colston | 7 | 8 | 96 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.95