2013 · Week 4

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

17·38

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSaints
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.115
  • 41.1%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.077
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.18CPOE+5.36
  • 35.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive2.21
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NO are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NO @ MIA17–21MIA
2021 · W16MIA @ NO20–3MIA
2017 · W4NO @ MIA20–0NO
2009 · W7NO @ MIA46–34NO
2005 · W8MIA @ NO21–6MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NO
NOQ1 15:00682Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 11:52872Field goal3–7
NOQ1 7:163-2Punt3–7
MIAQ1 6:2139Punt3–7
NOQ1 4:44822Punt3–7
MIAQ2 14:18651Turnover3–7
NOQ2 11:48877Touchdown3–14
MIAQ2 8:01881Touchdown10–14
NOQ2 3:3537Punt10–14
MIAQ2 2:13310Turnover10–14
NOQ2 1:23418Touchdown10–21
MIAQ2 0:5512End of half10–21
MIAQ3 15:0035Punt10–21
NOQ3 14:07859Touchdown10–28
MIAQ3 9:443-11Punt10–34
NOQ3 8:20143Touchdown10–35
MIAQ3 8:127-2Punt10–35
NOQ3 5:43638Missed field goal10–35
MIAQ3 2:53967Touchdown17–35
NOQ4 13:48964Field goal17–38
MIAQ4 7:1528Turnover17–38
NOQ4 6:23860Turnover17–38
MIAQ4 3:17640Turnover17–38
NOQ4 1:4300End of half17–38

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/3524913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller11625.61
Ryan Tannehill44812.00
Daniel Thomas451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Gibson68710
Marcus Thigpen12500
Charles Clay66421
Brian Hartline34340
Mike Wallace37240
Rishard Matthews12210
Lamar Miller1360
Daniel Thomas1110
Dion Sims0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/3941340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson12373.10
Darren Sproles4287.01
Drew Brees420.50
Pierre Thomas410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Sproles781141
Jimmy Graham441002
Marques Colston78960
Kenny Stills46380
Pierre Thomas56370
Nick Toon12180
Benjamin Watson1241
Robert Meachem0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.95