2025 · Week 13

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

17·21

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

MIA -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.021
  • 42.4%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.028
  • 5.5%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.72CPOE+1.82
  • 39.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.92
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. MIA are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W16MIA @ NO20–3MIA
2017 · W4NO @ MIA20–0NO
2013 · W4MIA @ NO17–38NO
2009 · W7NO @ MIA46–34NO
2005 · W8MIA @ NO21–6MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00669Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 11:1938Punt0–7
MIAQ1 9:0132Punt0–7
NOQ1 8:0336Punt0–7
MIAQ1 6:293-3Punt0–7
NOQ1 4:0737Punt0–7
MIAQ1 2:01768Field goal0–10
NOQ2 14:0944Turnover0–10
MIAQ2 12:3110Turnover0–10
NOQ2 12:2430Punt0–10
MIAQ2 11:35944Field goal0–13
NOQ2 6:071138Turnover0–13
MIAQ2 1:08313Field goal0–16
NOQ3 15:001070Touchdown8–16
MIAQ3 10:4039Punt8–16
NOQ3 8:58842Punt8–16
MIAQ3 4:46739Punt8–16
NOQ3 0:153-2Punt8–16
MIAQ4 13:24838Field goal8–19
NOQ4 9:39937Field goal11–19
MIAQ4 6:08621Turnover on downs11–19
NOQ4 3:03865Touchdown17–21
MIAQ4 1:1700Turnover on downs17–21
NOQ4 1:15519Turnover on downs17–21
MIAQ4 0:2900End of half17–21

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough26/3823921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Neal14473.40
Tyler Shough6183.00
Evan Hull5153.00
Taysom Hill122.00
Mason Tipton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devaughn Vele88931
Chris Olave47471
Juwan Johnson59390
Devin Neal33220
Mason Tipton34200
Foster Moreau22130
Taysom Hill1150

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa12/2315701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane221346.11
Jaylen Wright3165.30
Ollie Gordon II3103.30
Tua Tagovailoa441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller23470
Jaylen Waddle36400
Malik Washington45300
Greg Dulcich22240
Cedrick Wilson Jr.12160
Julian Hill0100
De'Von Achane0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.53