Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.021
- 42.4%Success rate42.1%
- -0.032EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.028
- 5.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.72CPOE+1.82
- 39.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 1.53Points / drive1.92
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. MIA are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 26/38 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Neal | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Evan Hull | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 8 | 8 | 93 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12/23 | 157 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 22 | 134 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Wright | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.53