Closing spread
NO -4
Total
51.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.092EPA / play-0.125
- 45.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.140EPA / dropback-0.086
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.198
- 12.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +4.74CPOE-0.06
- 38.5%Third-down rate31.0%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.37Points / drive1.31
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. MIA are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/41 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 11 | 89 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 20/28 | 164 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.42