2017 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

20·0

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Cutler

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NO -4

Total

51.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.092EPA / play-0.125
  • 45.3%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback-0.086
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.198
  • 12.4%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.74CPOE-0.06
  • 38.5%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.37Points / drive1.31
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. MIA are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NO @ MIA17–21MIA
2021 · W16MIA @ NO20–3MIA
2013 · W4MIA @ NO17–38NO
2009 · W7NO @ MIA46–34NO
2005 · W8MIA @ NO21–6MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001591Turnover0–0
NOQ1 6:281467Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ2 14:15719Punt0–0
NOQ2 9:26829Punt0–0
MIAQ2 5:1841Punt0–0
NOQ2 2:483-2Punt0–0
MIAQ2 1:43510Punt0–0
NOQ2 1:10625Field goal3–0
NOQ3 15:001272Touchdown10–0
MIAQ3 9:0139Punt10–0
NOQ3 6:5034Punt10–0
MIAQ3 5:4932Punt10–0
NOQ3 4:091161Field goal13–0
MIAQ4 12:32512Punt13–0
NOQ4 9:381282Touchdown20–0
MIAQ4 3:57622Turnover on downs20–0
NOQ4 2:4349Turnover on downs20–0
MIAQ4 1:09420End of half20–0

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4126820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14453.20
Alvin Kamara5255.00
Ted Ginn199.00
Adrian Peterson441.00
Drew Brees430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas811891
Alvin Kamara1010711
Brandon Coleman11310
Ted Ginn22250
Coby Fleener24210
Mark Ingram48170
Michael Hoomanawanui12130
Tommylee Lewis1210

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler20/2816401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi12463.80
Kenyan Drake166.00
Jay Cutler155.00
Damien Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker68690
Jarvis Landry67400
Julius Thomas24290
Kenny Stills33130
Jay Ajayi1180
Kenyan Drake2350
Damien Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.42