Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.063
- 41.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.147
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.02CPOE-5.00
- 41.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.58Points / drive1.88
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. NO are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 19/26 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 10 | 12 | 92 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Tommylee Lewis | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Book | 12/20 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ian Book | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Ethan Wolf | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.51