2009 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

46·34

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

48

Model margin

+1.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Dolphins

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.118EPA / play+0.004
  • 48.1%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.028EPA / rush+0.023
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +6.47CPOE+0.24
  • 45.6%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.82
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. MIA are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13NO @ MIA17–21MIA
2021 · W16MIA @ NO20–3MIA
2017 · W4NO @ MIA20–0NO
2013 · W4MIA @ NO17–38NO
2005 · W8MIA @ NO21–6MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–MIA
NOQ1 15:00427Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:26930Punt0–0
NOQ1 8:1932Turnover0–6
MIAQ1 7:2514Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 7:203-7Field goal3–7
MIAQ1 5:06168Touchdown3–14
NOQ1 4:4735Punt3–14
MIAQ1 3:451146Field goal3–17
NOQ2 11:2130Turnover3–17
MIAQ2 11:00419Touchdown3–24
NOQ2 8:55644Missed field goal3–24
MIAQ2 5:1333Punt3–24
NOQ2 4:133-5Punt3–24
MIAQ2 2:2145Turnover3–24
NOQ2 1:38846Touchdown10–24
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half10–24
MIAQ3 15:003-1Opp touchdown17–24
MIAQ3 13:5632Punt17–24
NOQ3 12:29639Turnover17–24
MIAQ3 10:0239Punt17–24
NOQ3 8:123-7Turnover17–24
MIAQ3 7:1730Field goal17–27
NOQ3 5:59882Touchdown24–27
MIAQ3 1:09371Touchdown24–34
NOQ3 0:03379Touchdown31–34
MIAQ4 13:2330Punt31–34
NOQ4 12:52860Touchdown37–34
MIAQ4 8:3530Punt37–34
NOQ4 8:01949Field goal40–34
MIAQ4 3:23731Opp touchdown46–34
MIAQ4 1:53947End of half46–34

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees22/3829813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Bell12806.70
Pierre Thomas8303.80
Devery Henderson11313.00
Reggie Bush3103.31
Drew Brees231.52

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Shockey451050
Marques Colston512721
Devery Henderson46710
Lance Moore24180
Reggie Bush36160
Pierre Thomas11140
David Thomas12-10

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne18/3621102
Ronnie Brown0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams9808.93
Ronnie Brown16483.01
Ted Ginn155.00
Pat White1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline35940
Greg Camarillo56550
Anthony Fasano34210
Ted Ginn28160
Davone Bess36130
Ricky Williams24120
Joey Haynos0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+0.99