Closing spread
NO -6
Total
48
Model margin
+1.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play+0.004
- 48.1%Success rate45.9%
- +0.231EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.028EPA / rush+0.023
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- +6.47CPOE+0.24
- 45.6%Third-down rate48.8%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.36Points / drive1.82
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. MIA are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/38 | 298 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 5 | 105 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 12 | 72 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 18/36 | 211 | 0 | 2 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 9 | 80 | 8.9 | 3 |
| Ronnie Brown | 16 | 48 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pat White | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 5 | 94 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+0.99