Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.074
- 39.5%Success rate40.6%
- -0.097EPA / dropback-0.009
- -0.183EPA / rush-0.185
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- 32.4%Third-down rate33.7%
- 38.1%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.22Points / drive1.46
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.004EPA / play allowed-0.028
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. MIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 23/35 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
| Charlie Frye | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 73 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 19/28 | 207 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ciatrick Fason | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.20