2017 · Week 8

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

33·16

Browns

Cleveland

QB DeShone Kizer

Twickenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

MIN -11

Total

38.5

Model margin

-3.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.026EPA / play-0.146
  • 42.5%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +3.66CPOE-5.42
  • 44.3%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.07
  • 1.3%Turnover rate3.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIN @ CLE21–17MIN
2021 · W4CLE @ MIN14–7CLE
2013 · W3CLE @ MIN31–27CLE
2009 · W1MIN @ CLE34–20MIN
2005 · W12CLE @ MIN12–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CLE
MINQ1 15:00615Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 11:49237Touchdown0–6
MINQ1 11:20621Punt0–6
MINQ1 8:53618Field goal3–6
CLEQ1 5:27518Punt3–6
MINQ1 2:46719Punt3–6
CLEQ1 0:17519Punt3–6
MINQ2 12:481152Punt3–6
CLEQ2 7:2834Punt3–6
MINQ2 6:00760Touchdown9–6
CLEQ2 2:48882Touchdown9–13
MINQ2 0:40562Field goal12–13
CLEQ3 15:0016Turnover12–13
MINQ3 14:5135Field goal15–13
CLEQ3 13:32414Missed field goal15–13
MINQ3 12:0436Punt15–13
CLEQ3 10:311135Field goal15–16
MINQ3 5:34961Touchdown23–16
CLEQ3 1:1636Punt23–16
MINQ4 14:531136Touchdown30–16
CLEQ4 10:0632Punt30–16
MINQ4 8:4035Punt30–16
CLEQ4 6:5930Punt30–16
MINQ4 6:32416Punt30–16
CLEQ4 4:45816Turnover on downs30–16
MINQ4 2:513-1Field goal33–16
CLEQ4 1:09337End of half33–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum27/4328821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon14503.61
Latavius Murray19392.10
Stefon Diggs1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen510981
Jerick McKinnon610720
David Morgan33280
Kyle Rudolph67271
Stefon Diggs46270
Laquon Treadwell14210
Latavius Murray1180
Michael Floyd1170
Jarius Wright0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
DeShone Kizer18/3417900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell11645.81
Duke Johnson6335.50
DeShone Kizer5183.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Crowell46540
Ricardo Louis26420
David Njoku27190
Matt Dayes11150
Rashard Higgins11140
Sammie Coates22130
Bryce Treggs13120
Duke Johnson45100
Seth DeValve1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -112.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.68