Closing spread
MIN -11
Total
38.5
Model margin
-3.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.146
- 42.5%Success rate38.4%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +3.66CPOE-5.42
- 44.3%Third-down rate33.6%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 2.02Points / drive1.07
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 27/43 | 288 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 19 | 39 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 10 | 98 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShone Kizer | 18/34 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DeShone Kizer | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Ricardo Louis | 2 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Matt Dayes | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryce Treggs | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.68