Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
52
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.018
- 43.7%Success rate41.6%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.102
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.111
- 11.2%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.26CPOE+0.82
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.6%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.81Points / drive2.13
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. MIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/33 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 21 | 100 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 4 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/38 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58