2021 · Week 4

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

14·7

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

52

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapVikings
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.018
  • 43.7%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.102
  • +0.015EPA / rush-0.111
  • 11.2%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.26CPOE+0.82
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 70.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.13
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. MIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIN @ CLE21–17MIN
2017 · W8MIN @ CLE33–16MIN
2013 · W3CLE @ MIN31–27CLE
2009 · W1MIN @ CLE34–20MIN
2005 · W12CLE @ MIN12–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–MIN
MINQ1 15:001480Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:261557Turnover on downs0–7
MINQ2 14:4931Punt0–7
CLEQ2 13:4836Punt0–7
MINQ2 12:12734Turnover on downs0–7
CLEQ2 9:552078Touchdown8–7
MINQ2 1:1635Punt8–7
CLEQ2 0:45744Field goal11–7
MINQ2 0:0200End of half11–7
CLEQ3 15:0037Punt11–7
MINQ3 12:483-2Punt11–7
CLEQ3 10:41737Punt11–7
MINQ3 6:4250Punt11–7
CLEQ3 4:42523Punt11–7
MINQ3 1:12951Punt11–7
CLEQ4 12:1132Punt11–7
MINQ4 11:0734Punt11–7
CLEQ4 9:45636Field goal14–7
MINQ4 6:1610Turnover14–7
CLEQ4 6:08532Punt14–7
MINQ4 3:45855Turnover on downs14–7
CLEQ4 1:2135Punt14–7
MINQ4 1:011028End of half14–7

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield15/3315500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb211004.80
Kareem Hunt14694.91
Baker Mayfield2115.50
Odell Beckham Jr.144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins47630
Odell Beckham Jr.27270
David Njoku22170
Kareem Hunt24170
Demetric Felton22120
Austin Hooper15110
Nick Chubb1150
Harrison Bryant1230
Anthony Schwartz0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3820311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook9343.80
Alexander Mattison10202.00
K.J. Osborn11010.00
Kirk Cousins200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson67841
Adam Thielen38460
K.J. Osborn37260
Tyler Conklin46180
Dede Westbrook11170
Dalvin Cook26100
Ameer Abdullah1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.58