2009 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

34·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brady Quinn

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

39.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.168
  • 45.1%Success rate35.2%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.266
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.069
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +5.77CPOE-10.33
  • 45.4%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.23
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIN @ CLE21–17MIN
2021 · W4CLE @ MIN14–7CLE
2017 · W8MIN @ CLE33–16MIN
2013 · W3CLE @ MIN31–27CLE
2005 · W12CLE @ MIN12–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00731Field goal0–3
MINQ1 11:2830Punt0–3
CLEQ1 9:2446Punt0–3
MINQ1 6:551146Field goal3–3
CLEQ1 0:033-4Punt3–3
MINQ2 12:56423Touchdown10–3
CLEQ2 11:09945Field goal10–6
MINQ2 5:5739Punt10–6
CLEQ2 4:05310Punt10–6
MINQ2 2:2334Opp touchdown10–13
MINQ2 1:3038Punt10–13
CLEQ2 1:0431End of half10–13
MINQ3 15:001044Touchdown17–13
CLEQ3 10:07322Turnover17–13
MINQ3 8:381382Touchdown24–13
CLEQ3 1:06730Punt24–13
MINQ4 13:15416Punt24–13
CLEQ4 11:43412Turnover24–13
MINQ4 10:01514Field goal27–13
CLEQ4 6:5538Punt33–13
MINQ4 6:11164Touchdown34–13
CLEQ4 5:58617Turnover on downs34–13
MINQ4 4:4731Punt34–13
CLEQ4 3:031090Touchdown34–20
MINQ4 0:2800End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre14/2111010
Tarvaris Jackson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson251807.23
Percy Harvin22211.00
Chester Taylor7172.40
Jeff Dugan155.00
Tarvaris Jackson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin34361
Visanthe Shiancoe33260
Adrian Peterson11180
Sidney Rice24170
Chester Taylor57130
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100
Bernard Berrian0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn21/3520511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis11575.20
Brady Quinn22110.50
Josh Cribbs362.00
James Davis451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Royal49601
Jamal Lewis33470
Mike Furrey47280
Mohamed Massaquoi11180
Steve Heiden22140
Braylon Edwards15120
Josh Cribbs23100
James Davis3440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.2%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.43