Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.168
- 45.1%Success rate35.2%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.266
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.069
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- +5.77CPOE-10.33
- 45.4%Third-down rate32.5%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 2.31Points / drive1.23
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/21 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 180 | 7.2 | 3 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 21/35 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Davis | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Royal | 4 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Furrey | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| James Davis | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.43