Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.176
- 43.3%Success rate35.2%
- -0.115EPA / dropback-0.212
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.115
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.1%
- -2.84CPOE-5.66
- 32.4%Third-down rate33.8%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.75Points / drive1.18
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/34 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1/1 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Zavier Scott | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Max Brosmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 11 | 123 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel | 19/33 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 6 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Isaiah Bond | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Dylan Sampson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.07