2025 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Carson Wentz

21·17

Browns

Cleveland

QB Dillon Gabriel

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

35.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.176
  • 43.3%Success rate35.2%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback-0.212
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.115
  • 8.4%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -2.84CPOE-5.66
  • 32.4%Third-down rate33.8%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.18
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W4CLE @ MIN14–7CLE
2017 · W8MIN @ CLE33–16MIN
2013 · W3CLE @ MIN31–27CLE
2009 · W1MIN @ CLE34–20MIN
2005 · W12CLE @ MIN12–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:01636Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 10:17747Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 6:49992Touchdown7–7
CLEQ1 2:30727Punt7–7
MINQ2 14:28724Punt7–7
CLEQ2 10:5838Punt7–7
MINQ2 8:3749Punt7–7
CLEQ2 6:1448Punt7–7
MINQ2 4:0538Punt7–7
CLEQ2 2:301358Field goal7–10
MINQ2 0:0900End of half7–10
MINQ3 15:00959Touchdown14–10
CLEQ3 11:111474Touchdown14–17
MINQ3 3:053-5Punt14–17
CLEQ3 0:5639Punt14–17
MINQ4 14:051-3Turnover14–17
CLEQ4 14:0134Punt14–17
MINQ4 12:24642Missed field goal14–17
CLEQ4 9:41627Punt14–17
MINQ4 6:5368Punt14–17
CLEQ4 3:273-1Punt14–17
MINQ4 3:051080Touchdown21–17
CLEQ4 0:25244End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3423610
Cam Akers1/13210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason13524.01
Zavier Scott5183.60
Jalen Nailor11515.00
Carson Wentz3134.30
Max Brosmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson7111230
Jordan Addison56411
T.J. Hockenson66380
Josh Oliver23351
Jalen Nailor34270
Jordan Mason3440

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dillon Gabriel19/3319020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinshon Judkins231104.80
Jerome Ford5183.60
Malachi Corley11111.00
Dillon Gabriel252.50
Dylan Sampson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku69671
Isaiah Bond27290
Jamari Thrash11220
Jerome Ford22200
Quinshon Judkins12180
Jerry Jeudy25150
Harold Fannin Jr.44131
Dylan Sampson1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.07