2013 · Week 3

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brian Hoyer

31·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

40

Model margin

-0.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapVikings
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.017
  • 39.2%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.002
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -3.79CPOE-2.09
  • 34.9%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.75
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. MIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5MIN @ CLE21–17MIN
2021 · W4CLE @ MIN14–7CLE
2017 · W8MIN @ CLE33–16MIN
2009 · W1MIN @ CLE34–20MIN
2005 · W12CLE @ MIN12–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–MIN
MINQ1 15:001180Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:1331Punt0–7
MINQ1 8:1738Punt0–7
CLEQ1 6:55668Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 4:423-6Punt7–7
CLEQ1 3:21777Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 14:55980Touchdown14–14
CLEQ2 10:12855Field goal17–14
MINQ2 6:0724Turnover17–14
CLEQ2 5:12638Touchdown24–14
MINQ2 3:393-2Punt24–14
MINQ2 2:28316Field goal24–17
CLEQ2 1:08413Turnover24–17
MINQ2 0:47731Turnover24–17
CLEQ3 15:00745Turnover24–17
MINQ3 11:2428Turnover24–17
CLEQ3 10:44516Punt24–17
MINQ3 8:4534Punt24–17
CLEQ3 8:0646Turnover on downs24–17
MINQ3 7:2158Punt24–17
CLEQ3 4:212-6Turnover24–17
MINQ3 3:2539Touchdown24–24
CLEQ3 2:36314Punt24–24
MINQ3 1:011245Field goal24–27
CLEQ4 10:4759Punt24–27
MINQ4 8:3939Punt24–27
CLEQ4 7:11418Punt24–27
MINQ4 4:2236Punt24–27
CLEQ4 3:211155Touchdown31–27
MINQ4 0:51729End of half31–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Hoyer30/5432133

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ogbonnaya22311.50
Josh Gordon12222.00
Bobby Rainey4174.30
Willis McGahee891.10
Brian Hoyer1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon10191461
Davone Bess710670
Jordan Cameron611663
Chris Ogbonnaya45300
Greg Little38190
Bobby Rainey1140

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder25/4222801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson25883.51
Christian Ponder5469.22
Cordarrelle Patterson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson24490
Greg Jennings36430
Jarius Wright34350
Jerome Simpson38290
Kyle Rudolph58280
Adrian Peterson66270
Toby Gerhart22140
John Carlson1230
Joe Webb0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.83
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.16