Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
40
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.017
- 39.2%Success rate41.4%
- -0.074EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.002
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.2%
- -3.79CPOE-2.09
- 34.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.27Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. MIN are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 30/54 | 321 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 10 | 19 | 146 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 7 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 6 | 11 | 66 | 3 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 25/42 | 228 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 88 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.83
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.16