Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. HOU are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25/34 | 293 | 3 | 1 |
| Domanick Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.