Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. HOU are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:20 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 11:23 | 9 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:35 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 2:07 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 11:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 10:07 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 4:25 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| HOU | Q2 0:58 | 4 | 29 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:20 | 1 | 9 | End of half | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 44 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| LA | Q3 11:23 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q3 10:33 | 7 | 27 | Missed field goal | 10–24 |
| LA | Q3 6:43 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–24 |
| HOU | Q3 4:41 | 11 | 58 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| LA | Q4 14:02 | 15 | 43 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| HOU | Q4 6:37 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 17–27 |
| LA | Q4 2:49 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| HOU | Q4 0:26 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| LA | Q4 0:23 | 2 | 19 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| HOU | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–27 |
| HOU | OT | 6 | 33 | Punt | 27–27 |
| LA | OT | 6 | 90 | Touchdown | 33–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 25/34 | 293 | 3 | 1 |
| Domanick Williams | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.