Closing spread
HOU -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. HOU are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 15/21 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 12/17 | 98 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 141 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.