Closing spread
HOU -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulCortland FinneganCBThigh· DNP
- QuestionableRodger SaffoldTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableWilliam HayesDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableZac StacyRBChest· Full
- ProbableMatt ConrathDTConcussion· Full
Texans
- OutTim DobbinsLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAndre JohnsonWRShin· Limited
- QuestionableKeshawn MartinWRShoulder· Limited
- ProbableArian FosterRBThumb· Limited
- ProbableBrandon BrooksGToe· Limited
- ProbableBryan BramanLBNeck· Limited
- ProbableDarryl SharptonLBFoot· Limited
- ProbableDuane BrownTToe· Limited
- ProbableEd ReedSKnee· Limited
- ProbableWade SmithGKnee· Limited
- ProbableAntonio SmithDEQuadricep· Full
- ProbableBen TateRBElbow· Full
- ProbableBrian CushingLBKnee· Full
- ProbableBrice McCainCBKnee· Full
- ProbableChris MyersCBiceps· Full
- ProbableDerek NewtonTKnee· Full
- ProbableDeVier PoseyWRAchilles· Full
- ProbableEddie PleasantSAnkle· Full
- ProbableJ.J. WattDENose· Full
- ProbableRyan HarrisTElbow· Full
Win probability
- Texans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. HOU are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:11 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:47 | 7 | 25 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 5:59 | 8 | 69 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:44 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| HOU | Q2 13:22 | 7 | 83 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 8:21 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| HOU | Q2 2:43 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LA | Q2 0:49 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 17–6 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 17–6 |
| LA | Q3 13:02 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 30–6 |
| HOU | Q3 7:42 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–6 |
| HOU | Q3 7:36 | 16 | 58 | Opp touchdown | 38–6 |
| HOU | Q3 0:36 | 7 | 51 | Turnover | 38–6 |
| LA | Q4 11:56 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 38–6 |
| HOU | Q4 9:17 | 13 | 22 | Touchdown | 38–13 |
| LA | Q4 3:15 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 38–13 |
| HOU | Q4 1:50 | 7 | 25 | End of half | 38–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 15/21 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 12/17 | 98 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 141 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 7 | 8 | 88 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Lestar Jean | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.