Closing spread
HOU -14
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. STL are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 28/40 | 367 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 10 | 196 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.