Closing spread
HOU -14
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Texans
- QuestionableChris MyersCRibs· Limited
- ProbableDuane BrownTKnee· Limited
- ProbableArian FosterRBRibs· Full
- ProbableBrian CushingLBFoot· Full
- ProbableJoel DreessenTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableKasey StuddardGAnkle· Full
- ProbableMario WilliamsDEGroin· Full
- ProbableMatt SchaubQBleft Shoulder· Full
- ProbableTim BulmanDEHamstring· Full
- ProbableVonta LeachRBIllness· Full
Rams
- OutJason SmithTConcussion· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutMarc BulgerQBKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableBilly BajemaTEIllness· Limited
- QuestionableBrandon GibsonWRIllness· DNP
- QuestionableDaniel FellsTEIllness· Limited
- QuestionableDarell ScottDTIllness· DNP
- QuestionableJason BrownCIllness· Limited
- QuestionableKyle BollerQBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableLaJuan RamseyDTWrist· Limited
- QuestionableLeonard LittleDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableSam GadoRBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBIllness· DNP
- ProbableDavid VoboraLBKnee· Full
- ProbableK.C. AsioduLBAbdomen· Full
- ProbableParis LenonLBHip· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. STL are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:03 | 9 | 48 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:08 | 5 | 47 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:30 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 0:26 | 8 | 10 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:12 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 7:25 | 6 | 71 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:20 | 7 | 25 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:47 | 6 | 39 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q3 13:31 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| LA | Q3 12:11 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q3 10:55 | 10 | 83 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| LA | Q3 5:15 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| HOU | Q3 1:25 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 13:25 | 10 | 20 | Punt | 13–13 |
| HOU | Q4 8:07 | 7 | 76 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| LA | Q4 4:36 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 16–13 |
| HOU | Q4 2:28 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 16–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 28/40 | 367 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Moats | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 10 | 196 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.