Closing spread
LA -17
Total
47
Model margin
-1.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play-0.134
- 46.6%Success rate37.6%
- +0.183EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.213
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.1%
- -0.40CPOE-1.54
- 42.6%Third-down rate38.7%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.32Points / drive1.50
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. HOU are 1-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/32 | 305 | 3 | 0 |
| John Wolford | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Buddy Howell | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 9 | 115 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 88 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 9 | 35 | 1 |
| Ben Skowronek | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 29/38 | 310 | 2 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Scottie Phillips | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Scottie Phillips | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.69