2021 · Week 8

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

38·22

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

LA -17

Total

47

Model margin

-1.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapTexans
  • +0.082EPA / play-0.134
  • 46.6%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.213
  • 10.3%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -0.40CPOE-1.54
  • 42.6%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.50
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 5–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. HOU are 1-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1HOU @ LA9–14RAMS
2017 · W10HOU @ LA7–33RAMS
2013 · W6STL @ HOU38–13RAMS
2009 · W15HOU @ STL16–13HOU
2005 · W12STL @ HOU33–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–HOU
LAQ1 15:001175Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 9:32735Punt7–0
LAQ1 4:581072Turnover on downs7–0
HOUQ1 0:2339Punt7–0
LAQ2 13:23951Field goal10–0
HOUQ2 8:5130Turnover10–0
LAQ2 8:0459Touchdown17–0
HOUQ2 6:09418Punt17–0
LAQ2 3:49779Touchdown24–0
HOUQ2 0:30430Missed field goal24–0
HOUQ3 15:003-3Punt24–0
LAQ3 13:29414Punt24–0
HOUQ3 11:423-9Punt24–0
LAQ3 9:26379Touchdown31–0
HOUQ3 7:553-7Punt31–0
LAQ3 5:54977Touchdown38–0
HOUQ3 0:0235Punt38–0
LAQ4 14:1130Punt38–0
HOUQ4 12:031060Touchdown38–7
LAQ4 8:0834Punt38–7
HOUQ4 6:23462Touchdown38–14
LAQ4 5:0000Touchdown38–14
HOUQ4 4:57650Touchdown38–22
LAQ4 2:3537Punt38–22
HOUQ4 1:52773End of half38–22

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/3230530
John Wolford1/2500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson14906.41
Sony Michel9424.70
Robert Woods3227.31
Buddy Howell5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp791151
Van Jefferson36880
Robert Woods39351
Ben Skowronek33300
Tyler Higbee33250
Sony Michel22140
Darrell Henderson1231

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills29/3831021
Rex Burkhead0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead4215.31
Scottie Phillips5112.20
Phillip Lindsay382.70
David Johnson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks66831
Nico Collins44550
Jordan Akins55530
Brevin Jordan34411
Rex Burkhead34270
Chris Conley12240
Chris Moore22160
Scottie Phillips2390
Danny Amendola2530
David Johnson11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -172.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.69