Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.149
- 41.7%Success rate52.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.149EPA / rush+0.021
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- -1.68CPOE+1.65
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.05Points / drive2.67
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LA are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 19/27 | 188 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Higgins | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/29 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 10 | 11 | 130 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Xavier Smith | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.54