2025 · Week 1

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

9·14

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRams
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.149
  • 41.7%Success rate52.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.235
  • -0.149EPA / rush+0.021
  • 7.2%Explosive rate11.3%
  • -1.68CPOE+1.65
  • 37.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.67
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 5–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LA are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W8LA @ HOU38–22RAMS
2017 · W10HOU @ LA7–33RAMS
2013 · W6STL @ HOU38–13RAMS
2009 · W15HOU @ STL16–13HOU
2005 · W12STL @ HOU33–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–LA
HOUQ1 15:00410Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:49925Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:161262Field goal3–0
LAQ1 1:15720Punt3–0
HOUQ2 13:1231Punt3–0
LAQ2 11:1330Punt3–0
HOUQ2 10:12919Field goal6–0
LAQ2 4:47965Touchdown6–7
HOUQ2 0:53542Field goal9–7
LAQ3 15:00663Touchdown9–14
HOUQ3 12:28727Turnover9–14
LAQ3 8:233-1Punt9–14
HOUQ3 6:35836Punt9–14
LAQ3 2:00843Punt9–14
HOUQ4 12:05521Punt9–14
LAQ4 9:15947Turnover9–14
HOUQ4 4:091047Turnover9–14
LAQ4 1:43436End of half9–14

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud19/2718801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb13604.60
C.J. Stroud5326.40
Dare Ogunbowale294.50
Dameon Pierce351.70
Xavier Hutchinson155.00
Woody Marks331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Higgins23320
Xavier Hutchinson22300
Dalton Schultz35280
Justin Watson22270
Nico Collins35250
Cade Stover44220
Dare Ogunbowale22170
Jaylin Noel1270
Nick Chubb0100
Dameon Pierce0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/2924510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams18663.71
Jordan Whittington155.00
Blake Corum122.00
Puka Nacua111.00
Matthew Stafford4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua10111300
Davante Adams48510
Xavier Smith11360
Blake Corum11140
Davis Allen12131
Tutu Atwell1140
Kyren Williams1230
Colby Parkinson22-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.54