Closing spread
LA -12
Total
45
Model margin
+4.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.054
- 40.4%Success rate43.3%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.131
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.9%Explosive rate11.4%
- -2.95CPOE-1.32
- 36.6%Third-down rate41.3%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
- 1.47Points / drive2.27
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 5–1 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LA are 5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Savage | 18/36 | 221 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 14 | 111 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/37 | 355 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 8 | 10 | 171 | 2 |
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.14