2017 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

7·33

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

LA -12

Total

45

Model margin

+4.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRams
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.054
  • 40.4%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.131
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.9%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -2.95CPOE-1.32
  • 36.6%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate56.1%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.27
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 5–1 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LA are 5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1HOU @ LA9–14RAMS
2021 · W8LA @ HOU38–22RAMS
2013 · W6STL @ HOU38–13RAMS
2009 · W15HOU @ STL16–13HOU
2005 · W12STL @ HOU33–27RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–LA
HOUQ1 15:0050Turnover0–0
LAQ1 12:3233Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 11:10530Punt0–3
LAQ1 9:123-1Punt0–3
HOUQ1 8:07619Punt0–3
LAQ1 4:5344Punt0–3
HOUQ1 2:24942Missed field goal0–3
LAQ2 13:21557Field goal0–6
HOUQ2 10:17875Touchdown7–6
LAQ2 6:31725Turnover on downs7–6
HOUQ2 3:30723Turnover7–6
LAQ2 1:35943Field goal7–9
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half7–9
LAQ3 15:00422Punt7–9
HOUQ3 13:13834Punt7–9
LAQ3 9:56296Touchdown7–16
HOUQ3 9:2335Punt7–16
LAQ3 8:14939Punt7–16
HOUQ3 3:5330Punt7–16
LAQ3 2:51336Touchdown7–23
HOUQ3 1:331-10Turnover7–29
LAQ3 1:24112Touchdown7–30
HOUQ3 1:1459Punt7–30
LAQ4 13:59979Field goal7–33
HOUQ4 7:33957Turnover7–33
LAQ4 4:34531End of half7–33

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Savage18/3622112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller11605.50
D'Onta Foreman7182.60
Alfred Blue4102.50
Braxton Miller111.00
Tom Savage200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins7141110
Bruce Ellington49411
Stephen Anderson23300
Will Fuller23150
Lamar Miller11140
C.J. Fiedorowicz25100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3735530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley11686.20
Lance Dunbar5316.20
Jared Goff430.80
Tavon Austin520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods8101712
Todd Gurley67680
Cooper Kupp67470
Sammy Watkins23411
Tyler Higbee24220
Pharoh Cooper22120
Lance Dunbar0100
Gerald Everett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.14