Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.023
- 45.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- 43.7%Third-down rate41.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.01Points / drive1.55
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/32 | 340 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 26 | 143 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 22/34 | 332 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04