Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.023
- 45.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.082
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.143
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- 43.7%Third-down rate41.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.01Points / drive1.55
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 14:30 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:21 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:21 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:32 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:23 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 6:41 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 2:16 | 17 | 103 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| KC | Q2 8:00 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| DAL | Q2 5:19 | 3 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| KC | Q2 3:55 | 9 | 66 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| DAL | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 26 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| KC | Q2 0:40 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 14–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–17 |
| KC | Q3 13:27 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| DAL | Q3 8:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–17 |
| KC | Q3 6:56 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 21–17 |
| DAL | Q3 2:57 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| KC | Q4 13:07 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–24 |
| DAL | Q4 12:08 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 21–24 |
| KC | Q4 8:01 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| DAL | Q4 3:55 | 15 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–31 |
| KC | Q4 0:22 | 2 | 48 | Missed field goal | 28–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 20/32 | 340 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 26 | 143 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 22/34 | 332 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.04