2017 · Week 9

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

17·28

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -2

Total

53

Model margin

+0.6est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.082EPA / play+0.008
  • 44.2%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.027
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +4.58CPOE-0.45
  • 39.2%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.85
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13KC @ DAL28–31DAL
2021 · W11DAL @ KC9–19KC
2013 · W2DAL @ KC16–17KC
2009 · W5DAL @ KC26–20DAL
2005 · W14KC @ DAL28–31DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DAL
DALQ1 15:00628Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:4436Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:0530Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:3732Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:34871Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 2:36733Punt0–7
DALQ2 13:5333Punt0–7
KCQ2 12:27854Field goal3–7
DALQ2 7:19828Punt3–7
KCQ2 3:20425Punt3–7
DALQ2 1:44782Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 0:13268Touchdown10–14
KCQ3 15:001050Touchdown17–14
DALQ3 9:061358Touchdown17–21
KCQ3 3:2944Punt17–21
DALQ3 0:441387Touchdown17–28
KCQ4 8:581035Turnover17–28
DALQ4 5:05618Punt17–28
KCQ4 1:49646End of half17–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith25/3426321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt9374.10
Alex Smith5193.80
Tyreek Hill492.30
Charcandrick West133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce79731
Tyreek Hill24641
De'Anthony Thomas33410
Charcandrick West56300
Kareem Hunt45240
Demarcus Robinson22180
Jehu Chesson11100
Ross Travis1230
Demetrius Harris0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3324920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott27933.41
Dak Prescott3279.01
Alfred Morris11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams991410
Dez Bryant611730
Cole Beasley46242
Brice Butler1360
Jason Witten1150
James Hanna0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.55