Closing spread
DAL -2
Total
53
Model margin
+0.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.008
- 44.2%Success rate43.8%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.027
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.58CPOE-0.45
- 39.2%Third-down rate43.3%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.21Points / drive1.85
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 25/34 | 263 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jehu Chesson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/33 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 27 | 93 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 9 | 9 | 141 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 6 | 24 | 2 |
| Brice Butler | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.55