2013 · Week 2

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

16·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

45

Model margin

+2.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapChiefs
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.023
  • 47.2%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.087EPA / dropback+0.073
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.26CPOE-2.44
  • 35.6%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.79
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45 points. KC are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13KC @ DAL28–31DAL
2021 · W11DAL @ KC9–19KC
2017 · W9KC @ DAL17–28DAL
2009 · W5DAL @ KC26–20DAL
2005 · W14KC @ DAL28–31DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–KC
KCQ1 15:001382Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 8:13547Field goal3–7
KCQ1 5:0239Punt3–7
DALQ1 3:56655Touchdown10–7
KCQ1 0:36427Punt10–7
DALQ2 14:1131Punt10–7
KCQ2 13:063-3Punt10–7
DALQ2 11:36413Punt10–7
KCQ2 8:5657Punt10–7
DALQ2 6:09939Punt10–7
KCQ2 1:47846Missed field goal10–7
DALQ2 0:0710End of half10–7
DALQ3 15:001273Field goal13–7
KCQ3 6:541080Touchdown13–14
DALQ3 2:53421Turnover13–14
KCQ3 0:3839Field goal13–17
DALQ4 14:06515Turnover13–17
KCQ4 11:0530Punt13–17
DALQ4 9:1240Punt13–17
KCQ4 8:4139Punt13–17
DALQ4 6:43945Field goal16–17
KCQ4 3:501047Punt16–17
DALQ4 0:16110End of half16–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo30/4229810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray12252.10
Lance Dunbar11212.00
Tony Romo231.50
Terrance Williams1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant9131411
DeMarco Murray56490
Miles Austin34310
Terrance Williams33280
James Hanna45200
Jason Witten38120
Gavin Escobar1190
Dwayne Harris1140
Lance Dunbar1140

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3622320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Smith8577.10
Jamaal Charles16553.40
Donnie Avery122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe48561
Jamaal Charles810481
Donnie Avery24380
Sean McGrath24310
Anthony Fasano22260
Dexter McCluster24140
Junior Hemingway11100
Cyrus Gray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.82