Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45
Model margin
+2.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.023
- 47.2%Success rate42.0%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.073
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.26CPOE-2.44
- 35.6%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 2.21Points / drive1.79
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. KC are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 30/42 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 9 | 13 | 141 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/36 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82