2025 · Week 13

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

28·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.109
  • 44.5%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.007
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.09CPOE+1.89
  • 39.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.53
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W11DAL @ KC9–19KC
2017 · W9KC @ DAL17–28DAL
2013 · W2DAL @ KC16–17KC
2009 · W5DAL @ KC26–20DAL
2005 · W14KC @ DAL28–31DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DAL
DALQ1 15:0036Turnover0–0
KCQ1 13:40237Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 13:041280Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 6:501272Touchdown14–7
DALQ1 0:01953Field goal14–10
KCQ2 10:22839Punt14–10
DALQ2 6:03885Touchdown14–17
KCQ2 3:101121Punt14–17
DALQ2 0:1218End of half14–17
KCQ3 15:00415Punt14–17
DALQ3 12:1838Punt14–17
KCQ3 10:51719Punt14–17
DALQ3 7:05846Field goal14–20
KCQ3 4:091180Touchdown21–20
DALQ4 14:511068Touchdown21–28
KCQ4 11:15412Punt21–28
DALQ4 9:26781Field goal21–31
KCQ4 5:16767Touchdown28–31
DALQ4 3:27724End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3426140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14584.10
Patrick Mahomes33010.00
Isiah Pacheco3165.30
Xavier Worthy2136.50
Rashee Rice122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice812922
Xavier Worthy46610
Travis Kelce56451
Kareem Hunt12220
Marquise Brown22201
Isiah Pacheco22170
Jared Wiley1140
JuJu Smith-Schuster0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/3932021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams17593.50
Malik Davis34715.71
KaVontae Turpin33311.00
Dak Prescott3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb791121
George Pickens613880
Jake Ferguson56360
Ryan Flournoy33340
KaVontae Turpin22280
Javonte Williams33211
Luke Schoonmaker1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.82