Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.109
- 44.5%Success rate47.2%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.09CPOE+1.89
- 39.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.23Points / drive2.53
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 3-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/34 | 261 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 12 | 92 | 2 |
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jared Wiley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/39 | 320 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 13 | 88 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82