2021 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

9·19

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

56

Model margin

+0.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapChiefs
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.140
  • 46.8%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.024
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.99CPOE+2.81
  • 43.7%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.44Points / drive2.66
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45 points. KC are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13KC @ DAL28–31DAL
2017 · W9KC @ DAL17–28DAL
2013 · W2DAL @ KC16–17KC
2009 · W5DAL @ KC26–20DAL
2005 · W14KC @ DAL28–31DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–KC
DALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:48981Touchdown0–6
DALQ1 10:013-5Turnover0–6
KCQ1 8:5333Field goal0–9
DALQ1 7:55965Field goal3–9
KCQ1 2:50875Touchdown3–16
DALQ2 14:081233Punt3–16
KCQ2 8:33529Punt3–16
DALQ2 6:2036Punt3–16
KCQ2 4:23423Punt3–16
DALQ2 2:393-5Punt3–16
KCQ2 1:432-3Turnover3–16
DALQ2 1:32414Turnover3–16
KCQ2 0:1510End of half3–16
KCQ3 15:00848Turnover3–16
DALQ3 11:23624Field goal6–16
KCQ3 9:213-4Punt6–16
DALQ3 7:4338Punt6–16
KCQ3 5:49641Field goal6–19
DALQ3 2:36850Field goal9–19
KCQ4 12:52627Missed field goal9–19
DALQ4 9:4331Punt9–19
KCQ4 7:551152Punt9–19
DALQ4 2:35977Turnover9–19
KCQ4 1:0000End of half9–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/4321602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard7507.10
Ezekiel Elliott9323.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz68530
Michael Gallup510440
Ezekiel Elliott66360
Cedrick Wilson Jr.47360
Tony Pollard22200
CeeDee Lamb34140
Malik Turner12110
Sean McKeon1120
Noah Brown0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3726001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire12635.31
Tyreek Hill13333.00
Darrel Williams5153.00
Patrick Mahomes7111.60
Travis Kelce144.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill911770
Travis Kelce58740
Byron Pringle12370
Mecole Hardman23250
Clyde Edwards-Helaire22130
Darrel Williams13110
Blake Bell1180
Noah Gray1180
Josh Gordon1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.80