Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
56
Model margin
+0.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.140
- 46.8%Success rate51.1%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.99CPOE+2.81
- 43.7%Third-down rate52.1%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.44Points / drive2.66
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. KC are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/43 | 216 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/37 | 260 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.80