2009 · Week 5

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

26·20

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapChiefs
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.123
  • 45.5%Success rate36.4%
  • +0.176EPA / dropback-0.113
  • -0.041EPA / rush-0.139
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.70CPOE-4.70
  • 40.5%Third-down rate27.1%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 1.77Points / drive1.20
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 45 points. KC are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13KC @ DAL28–31DAL
2021 · W11DAL @ KC9–19KC
2017 · W9KC @ DAL17–28DAL
2013 · W2DAL @ KC16–17KC
2005 · W14KC @ DAL28–31DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–KC
DALQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
KCQ1 9:5256Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:201061Missed field goal0–0
KCQ1 1:4237Punt0–0
KCQ1 0:133-5Field goal0–3
DALQ2 14:1324Turnover0–3
KCQ2 13:19516Touchdown0–10
DALQ2 11:00517Punt0–10
KCQ2 8:40737Punt0–10
DALQ2 5:341083Field goal3–10
KCQ2 1:49846Punt3–10
KCQ3 15:00416Punt3–10
DALQ3 12:5235Punt3–10
KCQ3 11:161126Field goal3–13
DALQ3 6:30967Touchdown10–13
KCQ3 1:5558Punt10–13
DALQ3 0:14771Field goal13–13
KCQ4 11:101543Missed field goal13–13
DALQ4 3:09364Touchdown20–13
KCQ4 2:161074Touchdown20–20
DALQ4 0:2410End of half20–20
KCOT529Punt20–20
DALOT31Punt20–20
KCOT31Punt20–20
DALOT489Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo20/3435120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tashard Choice89211.51
Marion Barber15533.50
Tony Romo351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin10152502
Jason Witten56470
Patrick Crayton48440
Sam Hurd12100
Marion Barber0100
Martellus Bennett0100
Tashard Choice0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel23/4125320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson21371.80
Matt Cassel4287.00
Jamaal Charles393.00
Mark Bradley1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe510741
Jamaal Charles57540
Bobby Wade48420
Mark Bradley37350
Sean Ryan24270
Larry Johnson1290
Leonard Pope1180
Jackie Battle1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.04