Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.123
- 45.5%Success rate36.4%
- +0.176EPA / dropback-0.113
- -0.041EPA / rush-0.139
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.70CPOE-4.70
- 40.5%Third-down rate27.1%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 1.77Points / drive1.20
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 45 points. KC are 2-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 20/34 | 351 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 10 | 15 | 250 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 23/41 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 21 | 37 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 5 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.04