Closing spread
IND -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.188
- 40.7%Success rate51.2%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.339
- -0.308EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- 38.3%Third-down rate50.1%
- 42.5%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.36Points / drive2.60
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–2 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. IND are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 31/42 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Sorgi | 21/31 | 207 | 2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mungro | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.84
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.93