Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
44
Model margin
+0.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play-0.107
- 38.8%Success rate38.7%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.207EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.7%
- -4.25CPOE-4.56
- 35.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.20Points / drive1.22
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–2 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. IND are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/36 | 332 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Nelson | 5 | 7 | 120 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 4 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Ifeanyi Momah | 1 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Brittan Golden | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Troy Niklas | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 20/37 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Doyle | 8 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 3 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.11