2017 · Week 2

Final / OT

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

16·13

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

44

Model margin

+0.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapColts
  • -0.129EPA / play-0.107
  • 38.8%Success rate38.7%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.102
  • -0.207EPA / rush-0.115
  • 7.2%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -4.25CPOE-4.56
  • 35.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.22
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–2 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. IND are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6ARI @ IND27–31IND
2021 · W16IND @ ARI22–16IND
2013 · W12IND @ ARI11–40ARI
2009 · W3IND @ ARI31–10IND
2005 · W17ARI @ IND13–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–IND
ARIQ1 15:003-5Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:231447Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 7:3835Punt0–7
INDQ1 5:48732Field goal0–10
ARIQ1 1:27774Turnover on downs0–10
INDQ2 13:0039Punt0–10
ARIQ2 11:451469Field goal3–10
INDQ2 5:563-6Punt3–10
ARIQ2 4:05746Turnover3–10
INDQ2 1:22714End of half3–10
INDQ3 15:00423Punt3–10
ARIQ3 13:3938Punt3–10
INDQ3 12:07731Punt3–10
ARIQ3 8:54622Punt3–10
INDQ3 6:001586Field goal3–13
ARIQ4 11:42770Touchdown10–13
INDQ4 7:38312Punt10–13
ARIQ4 5:34540Field goal13–13
INDQ4 3:25418Punt13–13
ARIQ4 1:56429Punt13–13
INDQ4 1:2230Punt13–13
ARIQ4 0:25223Missed field goal13–13
INDOT10Turnover13–13
ARIOT39Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer19/3633211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson11444.00
Kerwynn Williams9222.40
Andre Ellington2115.50
Carson Palmer362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.J. Nelson571201
Jaron Brown411730
Ifeanyi Momah12460
Brittan Golden12290
Larry Fitzgerald36210
Troy Niklas11160
Chad Williams12150
Andre Ellington35120

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett20/3721601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore14463.31
Jacoby Brissett6223.70
Robert Turbin3113.70
Marlon Mack6-3-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jack Doyle88790
T.Y. Hilton46490
Kamar Aiken39310
Brandon Williams11200
Donte Moncrief28180
Marlon Mack11110
Robert Turbin1180
Frank Gore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.11