2021 · Week 16

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

22·16

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

48

Model margin

+1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.079
  • 44.6%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.154
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.037
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.41CPOE+4.19
  • 41.9%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.37
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–2 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ARI are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6ARI @ IND27–31IND
2017 · W2ARI @ IND16–13ARI
2013 · W12IND @ ARI11–40ARI
2009 · W3IND @ ARI31–10IND
2005 · W17ARI @ IND13–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001152Missed field goal0–0
INDQ1 9:40659Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 6:11790Touchdown7–6
INDQ1 3:03730Missed field goal7–6
ARIQ2 14:10728Turnover on downs7–6
INDQ2 10:09724Punt7–6
ARIQ2 5:5033Safety9–6
INDQ2 4:201253Field goal12–6
ARIQ2 0:0100End of half12–6
INDQ3 15:0076Punt12–6
ARIQ3 12:15342Touchdown12–13
INDQ3 10:53939Turnover on downs12–13
ARIQ3 5:4230Punt12–13
INDQ3 5:21956Field goal15–13
ARIQ3 0:031052Missed field goal15–13
INDQ4 11:07879Touchdown22–13
ARIQ4 6:37515Turnover on downs22–13
INDQ4 5:1931Punt22–13
ARIQ4 4:161696Field goal22–16
INDQ4 0:4200End of half22–16

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz18/2822520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor271084.00
Nyheim Hines3113.70
Carson Wentz242.00
Michael Pittman133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman812820
T.Y. Hilton45511
Mo Alie-Cox24420
Ashton Dulin12230
Dezmon Patmon11141
Nyheim Hines1170
Kylen Granson1160
Jonathan Taylor0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray27/4324510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyler Murray47418.50
Chase Edmonds16563.51
Jonathan Ward133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chase Edmonds89710
Zach Ertz813540
Christian Kirk79480
A.J. Green13330
Antoine Wesley24291
Demetrius Harris1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.12