Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
48
Model margin
+1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.079
- 44.6%Success rate46.8%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.154
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.037
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.41CPOE+4.19
- 41.9%Third-down rate45.2%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.35Points / drive2.37
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–2 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ARI are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 18/28 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 27 | 108 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Dezmon Patmon | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 27/43 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 74 | 18.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Edmonds | 8 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.12