Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
49
Model margin
+1.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play-0.026
- 48.9%Success rate45.3%
- +0.241EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.143
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.60CPOE+3.71
- 48.9%Third-down rate36.7%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
- 2.29Points / drive1.75
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–2 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ARI are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/35 | 379 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 7 | 9 | 126 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 2 | 72 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 30/52 | 332 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Leinart | 2/2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 7 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.59