2009 · Week 3

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

31·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

49

Model margin

+1.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.127EPA / play-0.026
  • 48.9%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.143
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.60CPOE+3.71
  • 48.9%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate73.5%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.75
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–2 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ARI are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6ARI @ IND27–31IND
2021 · W16IND @ ARI22–16IND
2017 · W2ARI @ IND16–13ARI
2013 · W12IND @ ARI11–40ARI
2005 · W17ARI @ IND13–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–ARI
INDQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
ARIQ1 14:0434Punt0–0
INDQ1 11:59520Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:18519Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:0239Punt0–0
ARIQ1 6:02633Field goal0–3
INDQ1 2:46227Turnover0–3
ARIQ1 1:52744Turnover0–3
INDQ2 14:131195Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 9:043-7Punt7–3
INDQ2 8:13657Touchdown14–3
ARIQ2 5:4937Punt14–3
INDQ2 3:46468Touchdown21–3
ARIQ2 1:52864Turnover21–3
INDQ2 0:201-1End of half21–3
ARIQ3 15:00873Touchdown21–10
INDQ3 10:50976Missed field goal21–10
ARIQ3 7:22729Punt21–10
INDQ3 4:33475Touchdown28–10
ARIQ3 2:26728Turnover28–10
INDQ4 14:53632Field goal31–10
ARIQ4 11:31414Punt31–10
INDQ4 10:1436Punt31–10
ARIQ4 8:41108Turnover on downs31–10
INDQ4 6:221032Turnover on downs31–10
ARIQ4 0:2827End of half31–10

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning24/3537941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai13634.80
Donald Brown14402.90
Pierre Garcon11717.00
Dallas Clark177.00
Peyton Manning2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne791261
Donald Brown12720
Pierre Garcon35641
Dallas Clark79621
Austin Collie36470
Joseph Addai3481

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner30/5233212
Matt Leinart2/2700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower9222.40
Jason Wright144.00
Chris Wells2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Breaston710940
Anquan Boldin611831
Larry Fitzgerald713760
Tim Hightower58390
Jerheme Urban23140
Anthony Becht11110
Stephen Spach2490
LaRod Stephens-Howling1180
Jason Wright1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.59