2013 · Week 12

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

11·40

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.020
  • 44.6%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.108EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.109
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.44CPOE+3.74
  • 37.8%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.71
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–2 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ARI are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6ARI @ IND27–31IND
2021 · W16IND @ ARI22–16IND
2017 · W2ARI @ IND16–13ARI
2009 · W3IND @ ARI31–10IND
2005 · W17ARI @ IND13–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001085Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:0235Punt0–7
ARIQ1 8:30742Missed field goal0–7
INDQ1 5:381042Field goal3–7
ARIQ1 1:15580Touchdown3–14
INDQ2 13:2930Punt3–14
ARIQ2 12:30828Field goal3–17
INDQ2 8:1520Opp touchdown3–24
INDQ2 7:5836Punt3–24
ARIQ2 6:47520Punt3–24
INDQ2 3:3135Punt3–24
ARIQ2 1:49619Field goal3–27
INDQ3 15:001040Turnover on downs3–27
ARIQ3 11:081244Touchdown3–34
INDQ3 5:573-2Punt3–34
ARIQ3 4:44928Punt3–34
INDQ4 14:481389Touchdown11–34
ARIQ4 10:26746Field goal11–37
INDQ4 7:20521Turnover on downs11–37
ARIQ4 5:57618Field goal11–40
INDQ4 2:17433End of half11–40

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck20/3916311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron4338.30
Andrew Luck23115.50
Trent Richardson7152.10
Donald Brown210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener48551
T.Y. Hilton59380
LaVon Brazill35350
Darrius Heyward-Bey36220
Trent Richardson22110
Justice Cunningham1140
David Reed0200
Weslye Saunders0200
Donald Brown12-20

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer26/3731420
Larry Fitzgerald0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall13544.21
Andre Ellington10505.00
Stepfan Taylor5102.00
Larry Fitzgerald144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd771040
Larry Fitzgerald511522
Rob Housler45510
Andre Roberts35430
Rashard Mendenhall12240
Andre Ellington22210
Jaron Brown11160
Alfonso Smith1160
Stepfan Taylor1110
Jim Dray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.46