Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.020
- 44.6%Success rate41.6%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.44CPOE+3.74
- 37.8%Third-down rate35.3%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.89Points / drive1.71
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–2 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ARI are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 20/39 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 4 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 5 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Justice Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| David Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Weslye Saunders | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/37 | 314 | 2 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 7 | 7 | 104 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 11 | 52 | 2 |
| Rob Housler | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.46