2025 · Week 6

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jacoby Brissett

27·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Daniel Jones

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -8.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapColts
  • -0.014EPA / play+0.083
  • 43.0%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.142EPA / rush+0.052
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.10CPOE+0.62
  • 41.6%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 4–2 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. IND are 3-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W16IND @ ARI22–16IND
2017 · W2ARI @ IND16–13ARI
2013 · W12IND @ ARI11–40ARI
2009 · W3IND @ ARI31–10IND
2005 · W17ARI @ IND13–17IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–IND
INDQ1 15:00965Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 11:01311Punt0–7
INDQ1 10:073-1Punt0–7
ARIQ1 7:541156Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 1:4237Punt7–7
ARIQ1 0:053-2Punt7–7
INDQ2 14:0310Turnover7–7
ARIQ2 13:55211Turnover7–7
INDQ2 13:09987Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 7:511358Field goal10–14
INDQ2 1:56619Punt10–14
ARIQ2 0:26527End of half10–14
ARIQ3 15:001061Touchdown17–14
INDQ3 8:39842Field goal17–17
ARIQ3 4:31751Touchdown24–17
INDQ3 1:22667Touchdown24–24
ARIQ4 13:12949Field goal27–24
INDQ4 9:311051Touchdown27–31
ARIQ4 4:321078Turnover on downs27–31
INDQ4 0:53220End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett27/4432021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter9343.80
Bam Knight11343.11
Jacoby Brissett3196.30
Emari Demercado111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones58790
Trey McBride811721
Michael Wilson45440
Elijah Higgins22340
Marvin Harrison Jr.22320
Michael Carter25300
Bam Knight12200
Greg Dortch3391
Emari Demercado0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3021221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor211235.91
Daniel Jones5204.01
Ameer Abdullah177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Warren69631
Alec Pierce24480
Josh Downs67421
Michael Pittman23200
Mo Alie-Cox12160
Jonathan Taylor44140
Ameer Abdullah1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.19