Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.083
- 43.0%Success rate46.6%
- +0.042EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.142EPA / rush+0.052
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.10CPOE+0.62
- 41.6%Third-down rate43.0%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.88Points / drive2.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 4–2 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. IND are 3-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 27/44 | 320 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 5 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Trey McBride | 8 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Emari Demercado | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/30 | 212 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 123 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19