Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.099EPA / play-0.203
- 40.0%Success rate34.0%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.265
- -0.098EPA / rush-0.129
- 6.2%Explosive rate6.8%
- 34.0%Third-down rate25.0%
- 55.5%Red-zone TD rate34.8%
- 1.30Points / drive0.94
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.5%
- +0.119EPA / play allowed+0.076
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. SF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 14/25 | 173 | 1 | 2 |
| David Carr | 4/11 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernand Morency | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 1 |
| David Carr | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/29 | 159 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 108 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.41
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.97