Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play+0.043
- 37.0%Success rate46.2%
- -0.055EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.69CPOE+4.51
- 29.4%Third-down rate41.5%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.54Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. HOU are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/22 | 206 | 3 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 6/11 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Glen Coffee | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 7 | 11 | 93 | 3 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 20/30 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 7 | 9 | 123 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 4 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.09
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.00