2009 · Week 7

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Shaun Hill

21·24

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Texans wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapTexans
  • -0.067EPA / play+0.043
  • 37.0%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.055EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.69CPOE+4.51
  • 29.4%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. HOU are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8SF @ HOU15–26HOU
2021 · W17HOU @ SF7–23SF
2017 · W14SF @ HOU26–16SF
2013 · W5HOU @ SF3–34SF
2005 · W17HOU @ SF17–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:453-4Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:06610Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:0037Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:38861Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 2:273-2Punt0–7
HOUQ2 15:00924Punt0–7
HOUQ2 11:24210Touchdown0–14
SFQ2 10:40629Punt0–14
HOUQ2 6:46473Touchdown0–21
SFQ2 4:24820Turnover on downs0–21
HOUQ2 1:293-2End of half0–21
SFQ3 15:00653Touchdown7–21
HOUQ3 11:01525Punt7–21
SFQ3 7:5438Punt7–21
HOUQ3 5:28413Turnover7–21
SFQ3 3:241171Touchdown14–21
HOUQ4 12:43968Field goal14–24
SFQ4 7:16778Touchdown21–24
HOUQ4 3:43646Punt21–24
SFQ4 1:38637Turnover21–24
HOUQ4 0:0300End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2220631
Shaun Hill6/114500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13322.50
Alex Smith2168.00
Josh Morgan166.00
Glen Coffee231.50
Shaun Hill122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis711933
Josh Morgan44620
Michael Crabtree56560
Isaac Bruce26230
Frank Gore23150
Delanie Walker1120

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub20/3026420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton18673.71
Chris Brown4143.50
Matt Schaub591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels791231
Andre Johnson24620
Kevin Walter33290
Steve Slaton46221
Andre Davis12140
David Anderson22100
Chris Brown1140
Joel Dreessen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.09
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.00