Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.008
- 48.5%Success rate41.7%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +5.72CPOE-1.68
- 50.4%Third-down rate37.4%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 2.48Points / drive2.05
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. HOU are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/32 | 193 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Jordan Watkins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 30/39 | 318 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Hutchinson | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Jaylin Noel | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jared Wayne | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.36
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.09