2025 · Week 8

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

15·26

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Texans wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapTexans
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.008
  • 48.5%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +5.72CPOE-1.68
  • 50.4%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 2.48Points / drive2.05
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. HOU are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W17HOU @ SF7–23SF
2017 · W14SF @ HOU26–16SF
2013 · W5HOU @ SF3–34SF
2009 · W7SF @ HOU21–24HOU
2005 · W17HOU @ SF17–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001767Field goal0–3
SFQ1 5:21618Punt0–3
HOUQ1 3:37871Field goal0–6
SFQ2 14:5737Punt0–6
HOUQ2 13:251092Touchdown0–13
SFQ2 7:3235Punt0–13
HOUQ2 5:521267Field goal0–16
SFQ2 0:58435Touchdown7–16
HOUQ2 0:2522Turnover7–16
SFQ3 15:0037Punt7–16
HOUQ3 13:361294Touchdown7–23
SFQ3 7:291376Touchdown15–23
HOUQ3 0:281058Field goal15–26
SFQ4 9:413-1Punt15–26
HOUQ4 7:58518Punt15–26
SFQ4 4:13870Turnover15–26
HOUQ4 1:5636Punt15–26
SFQ4 0:5346Turnover on downs15–26
HOUQ4 0:0900End of half15–26

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones19/3219321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey8253.10
Mac Jones22311.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings47450
Kendrick Bourne34440
Christian McCaffrey36430
George Kittle45431
Jordan Watkins1270
Demarcus Robinson2350
Jake Tonges1121
Skyy Moore0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud30/3931821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks11625.60
Nick Chubb17563.30
C.J. Stroud7304.30
Dare Ogunbowale199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Hutchinson56691
Jaylin Noel56630
Woody Marks44490
Braxton Berrios55380
Jayden Higgins48341
Dalton Schultz23240
Jared Wayne22200
Nick Chubb22130
Dare Ogunbowale1180
Harrison Bryant0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.36
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.09