Closing spread
SF -14
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.134EPA / play+0.085
- 37.6%Success rate45.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.213EPA / rush-0.024
- 6.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- -1.54CPOE+1.73
- 38.7%Third-down rate40.6%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.50Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. SF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 21/32 | 163 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 11 | 66 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 16/23 | 249 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 21 | 119 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Trey Lance | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 4 | 6 | 94 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.81