2021 · Week 17

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

7·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Trey Lance

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -14

Total

44

Model margin

+3.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge map49ers
  • -0.134EPA / play+0.085
  • 37.6%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.213EPA / rush-0.024
  • 6.1%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -1.54CPOE+1.73
  • 38.7%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.50Points / drive2.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. SF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8SF @ HOU15–26HOU
2017 · W14SF @ HOU26–16SF
2013 · W5HOU @ SF3–34SF
2009 · W7SF @ HOU21–24HOU
2005 · W17HOU @ SF17–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–SF
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:4236Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:5038Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:44830Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ1 4:2259Punt0–0
SFQ1 2:171066Punt0–0
HOUQ2 10:5438Punt0–0
SFQ2 9:2410Turnover0–0
HOUQ2 9:121485Touchdown7–0
SFQ2 1:5737Punt7–0
HOUQ2 1:183-2Punt7–0
SFQ2 0:38556Field goal7–3
SFQ3 15:00756Turnover on downs7–3
HOUQ3 11:11613Turnover7–3
SFQ3 8:14521Touchdown7–10
HOUQ3 5:5330Punt7–10
SFQ3 3:44419Punt7–10
HOUQ3 1:351017Missed field goal7–10
SFQ4 12:04465Touchdown7–17
HOUQ4 9:56714Punt7–17
SFQ4 6:461081Field goal7–20
HOUQ4 3:1948Turnover on downs7–20
SFQ4 2:4139Field goal7–23
HOUQ4 1:12657End of half7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills21/3216311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead16472.90
Royce Freeman6254.20
Jaylen Samuels372.30
Davis Mills144.00
Chris Conley133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks711661
Nico Collins25350
Rex Burkhead66320
Jaylen Samuels33140
Pharaoh Brown1190
Brevin Jordan1190
Royce Freeman0100
Chris Conley12-20

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trey Lance16/2324921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell211195.70
Trey Lance8313.90
Deebo Samuel Sr.7192.70
George Kittle166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk46940
Deebo Samuel Sr.36631
George Kittle12290
Jauan Jennings22250
Trent Sherfield12120
Elijah Mitchell22111
JaMycal Hasty1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.81