2017 · Week 14

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

26·16

Texans

Houston

QB Tom Savage

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -1

Total

45.5

Model margin

-8.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Texans wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapTexans
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.053
  • 41.2%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.126
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -3.27CPOE-2.95
  • 39.5%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.47
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. HOU are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8SF @ HOU15–26HOU
2021 · W17HOU @ SF7–23SF
2013 · W5HOU @ SF3–34SF
2009 · W7SF @ HOU21–24HOU
2005 · W17HOU @ SF17–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–HOU
SFQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:18630Field goal0–3
SFQ1 9:02741Turnover0–3
HOUQ1 5:22518Turnover on downs0–3
SFQ1 2:47412Punt0–3
HOUQ1 1:18834Punt0–3
SFQ2 12:14518Punt0–3
HOUQ2 10:0733Punt0–3
SFQ2 9:05536Field goal3–3
HOUQ2 6:313-1Punt3–3
SFQ2 5:37668Touchdown10–3
HOUQ2 2:32975Touchdown10–9
SFQ2 0:54462Field goal13–9
HOUQ3 15:00769Touchdown13–16
SFQ3 12:111053Field goal16–16
HOUQ3 8:12521Punt16–16
SFQ3 5:26890Touchdown23–16
HOUQ3 1:5330Punt23–16
SFQ3 1:2079Punt23–16
HOUQ4 12:3347Punt23–16
SFQ4 11:11715Punt23–16
HOUQ4 6:31314Turnover23–16
SFQ4 5:4039Field goal26–16
HOUQ4 3:501141Missed field goal26–16
SFQ4 1:2900End of half26–16

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo20/3333411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde14785.61
Matt Breida12272.30
Jimmy Garoppolo5-3-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin6121060
Garrett Celek24671
Kendrick Bourne22290
Aldrick Robinson22270
Louis Murphy12200
Trent Taylor23110
George Kittle22100
Carlos Hyde0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates14/2617520
Tom Savage6/126300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller17533.10
T.J. Yates33110.30
Andre Ellington362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins11161492
Will Fuller35260
DeAndrew White16240
Andre Ellington12160
Stephen Anderson26160
Lamar Miller2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.4%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.1%5.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

28.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-8.15