Closing spread
HOU -1
Total
45.5
Model margin
-8.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.053
- 41.2%Success rate40.4%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- -3.27CPOE-2.95
- 39.5%Third-down rate36.6%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.47
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. HOU are 1-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 20/33 | 334 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 6 | 12 | 106 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 14/26 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
| Tom Savage | 6/12 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11 | 16 | 149 | 2 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| DeAndrew White | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
28.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-7.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-8.15