Closing spread
SF -4
Total
43
Model margin
+6.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play+0.034
- 40.7%Success rate41.8%
- -0.116EPA / dropback+0.156
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.110
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- -3.08CPOE-1.63
- 36.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.07Points / drive1.99
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 4–2 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. SF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 19/35 | 173 | 0 | 3 |
| T.J. Yates | 3/5 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cierre Wood | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 6/15 | 113 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 17 | 81 | 4.8 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 88 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.62