2013 · Week 5

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

3·34

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SF -4

Total

43

Model margin

+6.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge map49ers
  • -0.109EPA / play+0.034
  • 40.7%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.116EPA / dropback+0.156
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.110
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -3.08CPOE-1.63
  • 36.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.07Points / drive1.99
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 4–2 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. SF are 4-1-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8SF @ HOU15–26HOU
2021 · W17HOU @ SF7–23SF
2017 · W14SF @ HOU26–16SF
2009 · W7SF @ HOU21–24HOU
2005 · W17HOU @ SF17–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–SF
HOUQ1 15:0034Opp touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 13:301043Missed field goal0–7
SFQ1 7:281265Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 1:37840Punt0–14
SFQ2 12:52533Punt0–14
HOUQ2 10:34717Turnover0–14
SFQ2 7:01432Touchdown0–21
HOUQ2 5:031038Punt0–21
SFQ2 1:3235Punt0–21
HOUQ2 0:37217End of half0–21
SFQ3 15:0030Punt0–21
HOUQ3 14:37643Field goal3–21
SFQ3 12:013-1Punt3–21
HOUQ3 9:523-5Punt3–21
SFQ3 8:35834Field goal3–24
HOUQ3 5:151258Turnover3–24
SFQ3 0:25369Touchdown3–31
HOUQ4 14:16213Turnover3–31
SFQ4 13:1737Field goal3–34
HOUQ4 10:461140Turnover on downs3–34
SFQ4 6:01643Turnover on downs3–34
HOUQ4 0:2715End of half3–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub19/3517303
T.J. Yates3/51500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster21984.70
Ben Tate7284.00
Cierre Wood155.00
T.J. Yates100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels69600
Andre Johnson310390
DeAndre Hopkins24230
Arian Foster45200
Garrett Graham35150
Keshawn Martin11140
Ben Tate22120
DeVier Posey1250

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick6/1511310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore17814.81
LaMichael James4317.80
Kendall Hunter5295.80
Colin Kaepernick11414.00
Kyle Williams11313.00
Anthony Dixon5122.41
Colt McCoy3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis36881
Anquan Boldin26210
Jon Baldwin0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.62