Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
37
Model margin
+0.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.062
- 43.0%Success rate43.2%
- +0.117EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.052
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.03CPOE+4.14
- 42.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.67Points / drive1.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/35 | 314 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 18/27 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wali Lundy | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.35