2006 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

24·10

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

37

Model margin

+0.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTexans
  • +0.055EPA / play-0.062
  • 43.0%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.117EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.049EPA / rush-0.052
  • 11.1%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -1.03CPOE+4.14
  • 42.8%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.41
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–0 since 1999

PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9PHI @ HOU29–17PHI
2018 · W16HOU @ PHI30–32PHI
2014 · W9PHI @ HOU31–21PHI
2010 · W13HOU @ PHI24–34PHI
2002 · W4HOU @ PHI17–35PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001077Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 8:4448Punt0–7
HOUQ1 6:1847Punt0–7
PHIQ1 4:15433Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 1:4030Punt0–7
PHIQ2 14:44884Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 11:08731Punt7–7
PHIQ2 5:58629Punt7–7
HOUQ2 3:42743Field goal7–10
PHIQ2 1:03580Touchdown14–10
HOUQ2 0:11112End of half14–10
PHIQ3 15:00775Touchdown21–10
HOUQ3 11:28813Punt21–10
PHIQ3 7:41421Punt21–10
HOUQ3 4:573-3Punt21–10
PHIQ3 3:421249Field goal24–10
HOUQ4 12:481161Turnover on downs24–10
PHIQ4 8:561662End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/3531431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook17714.20
Correll Buckhalter8506.30
Donovan McNabb471.80
Thomas Tapeh122.00

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr18/2720810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wali Lundy11322.90
David Carr4256.30
Vernand Morency5132.60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.35