2018 · Week 16

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

30·32

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

47

Model margin

+0.3est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapEagles
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.037
  • 44.3%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.097
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.58CPOE+5.11
  • 36.4%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.01
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–0 since 1999

PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9PHI @ HOU29–17PHI
2014 · W9PHI @ HOU31–21PHI
2010 · W13HOU @ PHI24–34PHI
2006 · W1PHI @ HOU24–10PHI
2002 · W4HOU @ PHI17–35PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–PHI
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:361377Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 6:321168Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 14:52411Punt3–7
HOUQ2 12:5539Punt3–7
PHIQ2 11:132-5Turnover9–7
HOUQ2 10:2715Touchdown9–7
PHIQ2 10:231784Touchdown9–13
HOUQ2 3:08950Touchdown16–13
PHIQ2 1:17747End of half16–13
PHIQ3 15:00716Turnover16–13
HOUQ3 11:2135Punt16–13
PHIQ3 9:26769Field goal16–16
HOUQ3 5:31526Punt16–22
PHIQ3 2:32183Touchdown16–23
HOUQ3 2:18828Turnover16–23
PHIQ4 13:43644Touchdown16–29
HOUQ4 10:21953Turnover on downs16–29
PHIQ4 6:58329Turnover16–29
HOUQ4 5:21545Touchdown23–29
PHIQ4 4:4137Punt23–29
HOUQ4 4:06875Touchdown30–29
PHIQ4 2:041057Field goal30–32

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson29/4033920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson8496.12
Alfred Blue4143.50
D'Onta Foreman7-1-0.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins9121040
DeAndre Carter67610
Demaryius Thomas35370
Vyncint Smith11351
Jordan Akins23330
D'Onta Foreman22281
Alfred Blue45260
Ryan Griffin24150

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles35/4947141
Nate Sudfeld0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles9323.60
Josh Adams11211.90
Wendell Smallwood133.00
Nick Foles111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor571161
Zach Ertz12161102
Alshon Jeffery35820
Darren Sproles36761
Dallas Goedert33300
Wendell Smallwood44240
Golden Tate23130
Jordan Matthews23130
Richard Rodgers1170
Josh Adams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.33
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.35