Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
47
Model margin
+0.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.037
- 44.3%Success rate46.2%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.097
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.58CPOE+5.11
- 36.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 1.91Points / drive2.01
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 29/40 | 339 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 49 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 7 | -1 | -0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 6 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 35/49 | 471 | 4 | 1 |
| Nate Sudfeld | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 7 | 116 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 12 | 16 | 110 | 2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 6 | 76 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.33
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.35