2022 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

29·17

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTexans
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.167
  • 47.9%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.147
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.204
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.05CPOE-4.69
  • 46.2%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 2.43Points / drive1.17
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–0 since 1999

PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W16HOU @ PHI30–32PHI
2014 · W9PHI @ HOU31–21PHI
2010 · W13HOU @ PHI24–34PHI
2006 · W1PHI @ HOU24–10PHI
2002 · W4HOU @ PHI17–35PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:371983Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 1:33523Punt7–7
PHIQ2 12:59346Turnover7–7
HOUQ2 12:0949Punt7–7
PHIQ2 10:041079Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 4:32775Touchdown14–14
PHIQ2 0:37439Missed field goal14–14
PHIQ3 15:003-2Punt14–14
HOUQ3 12:4947Punt14–14
PHIQ3 11:2138Punt14–14
HOUQ3 9:4934Turnover14–14
PHIQ3 8:13217Touchdown21–14
HOUQ3 8:041163Field goal21–17
PHIQ3 1:151075Touchdown29–17
HOUQ4 11:2279Punt29–17
PHIQ4 8:1532Punt29–17
HOUQ4 5:581038Turnover29–17
PHIQ4 2:08515End of half29–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts21/2724320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders17935.51
Jalen Hurts9232.60
Kenny Gainwell4225.51
Boston Scott155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert891001
A.J. Brown46591
Quez Watkins22250
DeVonta Smith22220
Kenny Gainwell33160
Jack Stoll12130
Zach Pascal1180

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills13/2215422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce271395.10
Davis Mills3186.00
Rex Burkhead199.00
Chris Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Phillip Dorsett35690
Chris Moore45431
O.J. Howard12140
Tyron Johnson1180
Jalen Camp1170
Rex Burkhead1260
Brevin Jordan1250
Teagan Quitoriano1121
Jordan Akins0100
Troy Hairston0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.64%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.46