Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.167
- 47.9%Success rate38.0%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.147
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.204
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.05CPOE-4.69
- 46.2%Third-down rate30.1%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 2.43Points / drive1.17
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 21/27 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 8 | 9 | 100 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 13/22 | 154 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 27 | 139 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jalen Camp | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hairston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.64%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.46