Closing spread
PHI -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.031
- 43.7%Success rate40.7%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.76CPOE-2.14
- 44.2%Third-down rate38.0%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 1.88Points / drive1.63
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 15/22 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
| Nick Foles | 9/12 | 124 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 7 | 158 | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jeff Maehl | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13/27 | 203 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 11 | 115 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89