2014 · Week 9

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

31·21

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

PHI -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapTexans
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.031
  • 43.7%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.120
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -0.76CPOE-2.14
  • 44.2%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.63
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–0 since 1999

PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9PHI @ HOU29–17PHI
2018 · W16HOU @ PHI30–32PHI
2010 · W13HOU @ PHI24–34PHI
2006 · W1PHI @ HOU24–10PHI
2002 · W4HOU @ PHI17–35PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–HOU
PHIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:13526Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:09883Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 8:30936Punt7–6
PHIQ1 3:2710Opp touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 3:11828Punt7–7
HOUQ2 14:5233Punt7–7
PHIQ2 13:17675Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 10:4137Punt14–7
PHIQ2 8:38624Turnover14–7
HOUQ2 6:25563Touchdown14–14
PHIQ2 3:581253Field goal17–14
HOUQ3 15:00824Punt17–14
PHIQ3 11:211145Punt17–14
HOUQ3 7:491063Missed field goal17–14
PHIQ3 4:04470Touchdown24–14
HOUQ3 2:403-1Punt24–14
PHIQ3 1:3737Turnover24–14
HOUQ3 0:26533Turnover24–14
HOUQ4 12:3527Touchdown24–21
PHIQ4 11:511685Touchdown31–21
HOUQ4 3:5000Turnover on downs31–21
HOUQ4 3:41739Turnover on downs31–21
PHIQ4 2:17310End of half31–21

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez15/2220222
Nick Foles9/1212411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy241174.90
Chris Polk8506.31
Darren Sproles3175.70
Mark Sanchez551.00
Nick Foles111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin671582
Darren Sproles45460
Jordan Matthews34401
Riley Cooper26260
Josh Huff34260
Jeff Maehl22130
Brent Celek2270
LeSean McCoy1160
Zach Ertz1240

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick13/2720321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster15563.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick6498.20
Alfred Blue7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins6111151
Arian Foster23631
Damaris Johnson22160
Andre Johnson27120
Garrett Graham0100
Keshawn Martin0100
Alfred Blue12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.89