2006 · Postseason
Week 17
Week 17: 16 games played. Rams produced the widest margin at 20 points; the tightest finish was 49ers at Broncos, decided by 3.
Briefing7
Commanders start Jason Campbell rather than Mark Brunell, which the model treats as worth about 0.7 points against them.
Chiefs start Trent Green rather than Damon Huard, which the model treats as worth about 6.2 points against them.
Jaguars start Quinn Gray rather than David Garrard, which the model treats as worth about 11.0 points for them.
Vikings start Tarvaris Jackson rather than Brad Johnson, which the model treats as worth about 4.5 points against them.
Colts lead the league in offensive EPA per play at +0.153, 0.081 clear of second.
Ravens have been the most efficient defence, allowing -0.219 EPA per play.
The model's widest disagreement with the market is Cardinals at Chargers, where it rates Cardinals about 12.0 points better than the line. Worth understanding, not worth backing — the model's picks have gone 49.93% against the spread historically, below the 52.38% needed to break even.
What this season can and cannot show1
- Next Gen Stats begin in 2016.
Slate
