Closing spread
PHI -8.5
Total
51
Model margin
+2.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play+0.078
- 47.5%Success rate44.2%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.104
- +0.039EPA / rush+0.029
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- +0.65CPOE+4.09
- 41.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.97
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/36 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 9 | 149 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 22/33 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 8 | 8 | 86 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47