2010 · Week 13

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

24·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -8.5

Total

51

Model margin

+2.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapEagles
  • +0.107EPA / play+0.078
  • 47.5%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.104
  • +0.039EPA / rush+0.029
  • 10.7%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +0.65CPOE+4.09
  • 41.2%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.97
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–0 since 1999

PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9PHI @ HOU29–17PHI
2018 · W16HOU @ PHI30–32PHI
2014 · W9PHI @ HOU31–21PHI
2006 · W1PHI @ HOU24–10PHI
2002 · W4HOU @ PHI17–35PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–PHI
PHIQ1 15:001193Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 7:56629Field goal3–7
PHIQ1 4:551173Touchdown3–14
HOUQ2 14:30512Punt3–14
PHIQ2 12:51651Field goal3–17
HOUQ2 9:35880Touchdown10–17
PHIQ2 5:38519Punt10–17
HOUQ2 3:04513Turnover10–17
PHIQ2 1:20614Field goal10–20
HOUQ2 0:21349End of half10–20
HOUQ3 15:001274Touchdown17–20
PHIQ3 8:49420Turnover17–20
HOUQ3 7:131481Touchdown24–20
PHIQ3 0:50660Touchdown24–27
HOUQ4 13:04614Punt24–27
PHIQ4 10:10987Touchdown24–34
HOUQ4 4:18725Turnover on downs24–34
PHIQ4 3:173-1Punt24–34
HOUQ4 2:57232Turnover24–34
PHIQ4 2:1930Punt24–34
HOUQ4 0:22222End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub22/3633721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster22833.81
Derrick Ward2157.50
Andre Johnson2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson691490
Joel Dreessen58630
Kevin Walter46330
Arian Foster24261
Jacoby Jones22201
David Anderson11170
James Casey1380

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick22/3330221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick10484.81
LeSean McCoy12443.71
Jerome Harrison3206.70
Chad Hall331.00
DeSean Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy88861
DeSean Jackson35840
Jeremy Maclin58680
Brent Celek47550
Jason Avant1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

47.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.47