2002 · Week 4

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

17·35

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -19

Total

36

Model margin

+6.5est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapEagles
  • -0.226EPA / play+0.004
  • 33.0%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.307EPA / rush-0.043
  • 5.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 39.5%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
  • 0.66Points / drive1.81
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.178

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–0 since 1999

PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9PHI @ HOU29–17PHI
2018 · W16HOU @ PHI30–32PHI
2014 · W9PHI @ HOU31–21PHI
2010 · W13HOU @ PHI24–34PHI
2006 · W1PHI @ HOU24–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–PHI
HOUQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:4930Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:28762Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 10:1310Turnover7–0
HOUQ1 9:573-8Punt7–0
PHIQ1 9:191272Field goal7–3
HOUQ1 3:53313Turnover7–3
PHIQ1 2:291027Touchdown7–10
HOUQ2 13:2859Punt7–10
PHIQ2 10:06959Touchdown7–17
HOUQ2 5:1337Turnover7–17
PHIQ2 3:4137Field goal7–20
HOUQ2 2:4234Punt7–20
PHIQ2 1:18622End of half7–20
PHIQ3 15:00888Touchdown7–28
HOUQ3 11:33560Touchdown14–28
PHIQ3 9:0729Turnover14–28
HOUQ3 8:43518Turnover14–28
PHIQ3 6:343-4Punt14–28
HOUQ3 5:13629Field goal17–28
PHIQ3 2:3329Turnover17–28
HOUQ3 1:39611Punt17–28
PHIQ4 14:391138Punt17–28
HOUQ4 8:1835Punt17–28
PHIQ4 6:48457Touchdown17–35
HOUQ4 4:52419Punt17–35
PHIQ4 3:2438Punt17–35
HOUQ4 1:51614Turnover on downs17–35
PHIQ4 0:1400End of half17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr16/2918822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen14412.90
Jonathan Wells8334.10
David Carr2178.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Bradford79972
Jabar Gaffney57490
Billy Miller22220
James Allen23200
Rod Rutledge0100
JaJuan Dawson0100
Avion Black0100
Jarrod Baxter0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb24/4225911
Brian Mitchell1/15710
Freddie Mitchell0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley12332.82
Donovan McNabb7233.30
Dorsey Levens5204.00
James Thrash11919.00
Brian Westbrook471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston69700
James Thrash27451
Duce Staley33390
Chad Lewis510310
Cecil Martin33290
Dorsey Levens22150
Antonio Freeman16140
Jeff Thomason12130
Brian Westbrook1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +192.5%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.5%2.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

40.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.54