Closing spread
PHI -19
Total
36
Model margin
+6.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play+0.004
- 33.0%Success rate43.3%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.043
- 5.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- 25.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 0.66Points / drive1.81
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–0 since 1999
PHI have won 6 straight. Meetings average 50.7 points. PHI are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/29 | 188 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 14 | 41 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 7 | 9 | 97 | 2 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/42 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1/1 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 7 | 45 | 1 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.54