2006 · Week 3
Final
Reliant Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play-0.062
- 40.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.034EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.052
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.8%
- -2.46CPOE+4.14
- 38.5%Third-down rate38.7%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.41
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 24/27 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 16 | 124 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Rock Cartwright | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/29 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Samkon Gado | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
6.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17