2010 · Week 2
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
HOU -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.079
- 47.5%Success rate40.8%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.045
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.148
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.65CPOE-4.10
- 41.2%Third-down rate29.2%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.09Points / drive1.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 38/52 | 497 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 12 | 17 | 158 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 11 | 11 | 144 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 6 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/38 | 426 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 10 | 13 | 89 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 3 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88