2010 · Week 2

Final / OT

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

30·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

HOU -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCommanders
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.079
  • 47.5%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.045
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.148
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.65CPOE-4.10
  • 41.2%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11WAS @ HOU23–10WAS
2018 · W11HOU @ WAS23–21HOU
2014 · W1WAS @ HOU6–17HOU
2006 · W3WAS @ HOU31–15WAS
2002 · W16HOU @ WAS10–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–WAS
WASQ1 15:00857Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 9:37325Turnover0–3
WASQ1 7:59433Field goal0–6
HOUQ1 5:481177Touchdown7–6
WASQ2 14:56573Touchdown7–13
HOUQ2 12:2934Punt7–13
WASQ2 10:51523Punt7–13
HOUQ2 8:15951Missed field goal7–13
WASQ2 2:19463Touchdown7–20
HOUQ2 1:20641End of half7–20
HOUQ3 15:001056Field goal10–20
WASQ3 9:22997Touchdown10–27
HOUQ3 3:51783Touchdown17–27
WASQ4 15:003-9Punt17–27
HOUQ4 13:15440Field goal20–27
WASQ4 11:10758Missed field goal20–27
HOUQ4 6:363-3Punt20–27
WASQ4 5:063-3Punt20–27
HOUQ4 3:16881Touchdown27–27
WASQ4 2:034-2Punt27–27
HOUQ4 0:494-19Turnover on downs27–27
HOUOT854Punt27–27
WASOT731Missed field goal27–27
HOUOT736Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub38/5249731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster19693.60
Steve Slaton3144.70
Matt Schaub122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson12171581
Kevin Walter11111441
Arian Foster34690
Jacoby Jones69531
Joel Dreessen11280
Owen Daniels25240
David Anderson1210

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb28/3842610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis13332.52
Mike Sellers100.00
Larry Johnson2-7-3.50
Santana Moss1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss1013890
Joey Galloway37880
Chris Cooley33641
Fred Davis11620
Mike Sellers46380
Anthony Armstrong22360
Roydell Williams11340
Keiland Williams44150
Clinton Portis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.88