2002 · Week 16
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play-0.056
- 33.0%Success rate41.7%
- -0.172EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.083
- 5.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 25.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 0.66Points / drive1.22
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 12/31 | 112 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 5 | 10 | 43 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 14/31 | 190 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 5 | 9 | 73 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.16
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.92