2002 · Week 16

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

10·26

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

WAS -6.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCommanders
  • -0.226EPA / play-0.056
  • 33.0%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.307EPA / rush-0.083
  • 5.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 39.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 0.66Points / drive1.22
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11WAS @ HOU23–10WAS
2018 · W11HOU @ WAS23–21HOU
2014 · W1WAS @ HOU6–17HOU
2010 · W2HOU @ WAS30–27HOU
2006 · W3WAS @ HOU31–15WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–WAS
HOUQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:17516Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:48511Field goal3–0
WASQ1 6:46773Touchdown3–7
HOUQ1 3:2933Punt3–7
WASQ1 2:25620Punt3–7
HOUQ1 0:1731Safety3–9
WASQ2 13:21527Missed field goal3–9
HOUQ2 11:07715Turnover3–9
WASQ2 8:25415Punt3–9
HOUQ2 6:51619Punt3–9
WASQ2 3:12780Touchdown3–16
HOUQ2 1:09736End of half3–16
WASQ3 15:0031Punt3–16
HOUQ3 13:2933Punt3–16
WASQ3 12:33648Missed field goal3–16
HOUQ3 9:52428Turnover3–16
WASQ3 8:12928Punt3–16
HOUQ3 4:22611Punt3–16
WASQ3 2:341025Touchdown3–23
HOUQ4 14:1600Punt3–23
WASQ4 14:0949Punt3–23
HOUQ4 12:403-2Punt3–23
WASQ4 11:3837Opp touchdown10–23
HOUQ4 9:3400Opp touchdown10–23
WASQ4 9:341069Field goal10–26
HOUQ4 2:55626Turnover on downs10–26
WASQ4 1:41221End of half10–26

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr12/3111201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Wells15332.20
David Carr4205.00
James Allen4102.50
Jarrod Baxter144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Bradford510430
Billy Miller37300
Jabar Gaffney14160
James Allen11120
Jonathan Wells1160
JaJuan Dawson1350

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey14/3119020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts201165.81
Kenny Watson201105.50
Rock Cartwright22110.50
Derrius Thompson111.00
Patrick Ramsey3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson59731
Rod Gardner48530
Darnerien McCants37500
Rock Cartwright12121
Kenny Watson1120
Chris Doering0200
Zeron Flemister0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.16
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.92