2014 · Week 1
Final
NRG Stadium · closed · grass
Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.031
- 41.7%Success rate40.7%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.120
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.13CPOE-2.14
- 31.3%Third-down rate38.0%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
- 1.39Points / drive1.63
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 29/37 | 267 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 91 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niles Paul | 4 | 4 | 86 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 10 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14/22 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 27 | 103 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.43