2014 · Week 1

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

6·17

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapTexans
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.031
  • 41.7%Success rate40.7%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.120
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.13CPOE-2.14
  • 31.3%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate52.8%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.63
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11WAS @ HOU23–10WAS
2018 · W11HOU @ WAS23–21HOU
2010 · W2HOU @ WAS30–27HOU
2006 · W3WAS @ HOU31–15WAS
2002 · W16HOU @ WAS10–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00628Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:2438Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:0939Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:233-3Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:18412Punt0–0
WASQ1 4:1737Punt0–0
HOUQ1 2:5836Punt0–0
WASQ1 1:261039Punt0–0
HOUQ2 10:31522Punt0–0
WASQ2 7:43446Touchdown6–0
HOUQ2 6:06490Touchdown6–7
WASQ2 4:1533Opp touchdown6–14
WASQ2 2:09840End of half6–14
WASQ3 15:001284Turnover6–14
HOUQ3 9:16631Punt6–14
WASQ3 6:13579Turnover6–14
HOUQ3 3:531373Turnover6–14
WASQ4 13:10831Punt6–14
HOUQ4 8:271452Field goal6–17
WASQ4 1:55638Turnover on downs6–17
HOUQ4 1:1400End of half6–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III29/3726700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris14916.50
Roy Helu44611.50
Robert Griffin III320.70
DeSean Jackson1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Niles Paul44860
Pierre Garcon1012770
DeSean Jackson89620
Andre Roberts13220
Roy Helu23150
Jordan Reed1140
Logan Paulsen2200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick14/2220610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster271033.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick5102.00
Jonathan Grimes122.00
Alfred Blue100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson69930
DeAndre Hopkins45891
Arian Foster22170
Ryan Griffin1260
Damaris Johnson1310
C.J. Fiedorowicz0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.43