2018 · Week 11

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

23·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapCommanders
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.3%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.58CPOE-3.01
  • 36.4%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.44
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11WAS @ HOU23–10WAS
2014 · W1WAS @ HOU6–17HOU
2010 · W2HOU @ WAS30–27HOU
2006 · W3WAS @ HOU31–15WAS
2002 · W16HOU @ WAS10–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–WAS
WASQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:10968Field goal3–0
WASQ1 9:32627Punt3–0
HOUQ1 6:28764Touchdown10–0
WASQ1 3:151170Touchdown10–7
HOUQ2 14:143-1Turnover10–7
WASQ2 12:543-6Punt10–7
HOUQ2 11:29426Punt10–7
WASQ2 9:211445Opp touchdown17–7
HOUQ2 2:2300Opp touchdown17–7
WASQ2 2:2336Turnover17–7
HOUQ2 1:193-4Missed field goal17–7
WASQ2 0:31310End of half17–7
HOUQ3 15:00640Turnover17–7
WASQ3 11:46828Punt17–7
HOUQ3 7:31414Turnover17–7
WASQ3 5:33213Touchdown17–14
HOUQ3 4:47941Field goal20–14
WASQ3 1:191162Touchdown20–21
HOUQ4 11:57847Field goal23–21
WASQ4 7:3052Punt23–21
HOUQ4 4:38926Missed field goal23–21
WASQ4 0:52420Missed field goal23–21
HOUQ4 0:0300End of half23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2420812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller20864.30
Alfred Blue8465.80
Deshaun Watson372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keke Coutee59770
DeAndre Hopkins56561
Jordan Akins22420
Lamar Miller35220
Demaryius Thomas0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith12/2713502
Colt McCoy6/125410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson16513.22
Colt McCoy5357.00
Alex Smith4338.30
Byron Marshall252.50
Kapri Bibbs100.00
Trey Quinn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed711711
Trey Quinn44490
Josh Doctson37320
Michael Floyd13180
Maurice Harris14130
Kapri Bibbs2360
Vernon Davis0200
Byron Marshall0100
Jeremy Sprinkle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-2.33