2018 · Week 11
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.073
- 44.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.58CPOE-3.01
- 36.4%Third-down rate36.2%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.44
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/24 | 208 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keke Coutee | 5 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/27 | 135 | 0 | 2 |
| Colt McCoy | 6/12 | 54 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 11 | 71 | 1 |
| Trey Quinn | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-2.33