2022 · Week 11

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

23·10

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

41

Model margin

-1.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapTexans
  • -0.066EPA / play-0.167
  • 40.9%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback-0.147
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.204
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.41CPOE-4.69
  • 34.9%Third-down rate30.1%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.48Points / drive1.17
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W11HOU @ WAS23–21HOU
2014 · W1WAS @ HOU6–17HOU
2010 · W2HOU @ WAS30–27HOU
2006 · W3WAS @ HOU31–15WAS
2002 · W16HOU @ WAS10–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–HOU
WASQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:5120Opp touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 13:163-4Punt7–0
WASQ1 11:3834Punt7–0
HOUQ1 10:0339Punt7–0
WASQ1 8:28736Punt7–0
HOUQ1 4:5364Punt7–0
WASQ1 1:551080Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 11:443-11Punt14–0
WASQ2 9:43954Field goal17–0
HOUQ2 4:5348Punt17–0
WASQ2 3:001071Field goal20–0
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half20–0
HOUQ3 15:001158Field goal20–3
WASQ3 9:53620Punt20–3
HOUQ3 6:2663Punt20–3
WASQ3 3:39929Field goal23–3
HOUQ4 12:08627Turnover23–3
WASQ4 10:05411Punt23–3
HOUQ4 7:391155Touchdown23–10
WASQ4 3:19738End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke15/2719100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson18724.00
Brian Robinson15573.80
Curtis Samuel2189.01
Jahan Dotson133.00
Taylor Heinicke320.70
Terry McLaurin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Logan Thomas56650
Terry McLaurin47550
Antonio Gibson33310
Cam Sims11170
Jahan Dotson12130
Curtis Samuel12100
John Bates0100
Cole Turner0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills19/3316902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Davis Mills5102.01
Dameon Pierce1080.80
Chris Moore133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks36700
Nico Collins57480
Chris Moore57200
O.J. Howard1390
Dameon Pierce2390
Jordan Akins2380
Dare Ogunbowale1150
Phillip Dorsett0100
Teagan Quitoriano0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.40
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.38