2022 · Week 11
Final
NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
41
Model margin
-1.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.167
- 40.9%Success rate38.0%
- -0.045EPA / dropback-0.147
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.204
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.41CPOE-4.69
- 34.9%Third-down rate30.1%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.48Points / drive1.17
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 15/27 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 18 | 72 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 19/33 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Teagan Quitoriano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.40
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.38