2006 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

23·21

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 58°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

33.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapRavens
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.014
  • 41.2%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.175
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -0.31CPOE+3.00
  • 31.1%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.57
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 3–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 2-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11CAR @ BAL3–13BAL
2018 · W8BAL @ CAR21–36CAR
2014 · W4CAR @ BAL10–38BAL
2010 · W11BAL @ CAR37–13BAL
2002 · W1BAL @ CAR7–10CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–BAL
BALQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:38930Turnover0–0
BALQ1 9:0739Turnover0–0
CARQ1 7:35859Field goal3–0
BALQ1 2:3532Punt3–0
CARQ1 0:431-2Turnover3–0
BALQ1 0:2835Turnover3–0
CARQ2 14:443-6Punt3–0
BALQ2 13:341373Touchdown3–7
CARQ2 8:33877Touchdown10–7
BALQ2 4:1634Punt10–7
CARQ2 3:04965Field goal13–7
BALQ2 0:0400End of half13–7
CARQ3 15:00622Turnover13–7
BALQ3 12:18732Turnover13–7
CARQ3 8:194-2Punt13–7
BALQ3 6:441442Punt13–7
CARQ4 14:511491Field goal16–7
BALQ4 7:024-6Punt16–7
CARQ4 6:0932Punt16–7
BALQ4 5:10359Touchdown16–14
CARQ4 4:33172Touchdown23–14
BALQ4 4:15768Touchdown23–21
CARQ4 2:1358End of half23–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme24/3936522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster26582.20
Nick Goings111.00
Eric Shelton111.00
Jake Delhomme2-2-1.00

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller17/3122631
Steve McNair2/4401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis9414.60
Kyle Boller6274.50
Mike Anderson671.20
Musa Smith155.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.41