Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
33.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.014
- 41.2%Success rate40.5%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.175
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.31CPOE+3.00
- 31.1%Third-down rate42.7%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
- 1.29Points / drive1.57
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 3–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 24/39 | 365 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 26 | 58 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Eric Shelton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 17/31 | 226 | 3 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2/4 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.41